NEW DELHI — India is poised to record its driest monsoon season in nearly two decades as an intensifying El Niño weather pattern significantly depresses rainfall, threatening national agricultural output and intensifying pressure on retail food inflation. According to data released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative precipitation across the vital June-to-September window is tracking 15 per cent below the long-term benchmark, deteriorating from an initial shortfall forecast of 10 per cent issued in May. Meteorologists warn that if current trends persist, the season will mark the most severe deficit since 2009, when rainfall fell 18 per cent below normal levels.
Weather analysts anticipate that the nationwide precipitation deficit will finish between 13 and 16 per cent by the end of the season. While atmospheric experts note that a tropical cyclone could form over the Bay of Bengal during the final week of September, bringing localised relief to eastern and northeastern regions, the weather system is unlikely to alter the broader national deficit substantially. The prolonged dry spell threatens standing kharif crops and clouds prospects for winter rabi sowings, compounding household budget pressures following seven consecutive months of climbing food prices.
In response to tightening supplies and accelerating retail rates, the central government has introduced market interventions, including duty-free sugar imports to stabilise domestic stocks and the release of subsidised onions in selected consumer markets. Agricultural specialists note that seasonal rainfall remains indispensable for hundreds of millions of rural cultivators in one of the world’s leading producers of rice, sugar, and cotton, where rain-fed agriculture continues to underpin the rural economy.
Meanwhile, seasonal atmospheric shifts indicate the standard seasonal transition is underway. The IMD observed that conditions are turning favourable for the monsoon withdrawal to commence from parts of western Rajasthan around September 19, marginally trailing the conventional September 17 timeline. The gradual departure process will progress eastward and southward through the coming weeks, before the monsoon system fully retreats from the subcontinent by early October.
