New Delhi — Annual cancer deaths could rise by nearly 75% over the next 25 years, reaching 18.6 million worldwide by 2050, according to a new study published in The Lancet. The surge is attributed to ageing populations and economic growth, which often bring lifestyle-related risk factors.
The study projects that new cancer cases will jump 61%, with 30.5 million expected by 2050. Researchers found that since 1990, cancer deaths have already risen 74% to 10.4 million, while new cases more than doubled to 18.5 million in 2023. Low- and middle-income countries continue to carry the heaviest burden.
India saw one of the steepest rises in cancer rates globally, with a 26.4% increase between 1990 and 2023, while China recorded an 18.5% decline.
The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, identified 44 preventable risk factors—including tobacco use, unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar—as responsible for more than 40% of cancer deaths worldwide.
“Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources,” said lead author Dr. Lisa Force.
Despite falling global death rates overall—down 24% between 1990 and 2023—inequalities persist. New cases rose 24% in low-income countries and 29% in lower-middle-income countries, highlighting the widening gap.
Researchers stressed that scaling up timely diagnosis, quality treatment, and equitable health services will be critical to narrowing disparities. Without urgent policy action and funding, they warned, cancer could become an even more devastating global challenge in the decades ahead.
