New Delhi: India witnessed one of its driest Junes in more than a century this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reporting that the month ranked as the fifth-driest June since rainfall records began in 1901. The weather agency has also projected that rainfall during July is likely to remain below the long-term average, even as the southwest monsoon continues its gradual advance across the country.
According to the IMD, the country received only 99.5 mm of rainfall during June against the normal average of 165.3 mm, resulting in a rainfall deficit of nearly 40 per cent. The shortfall was particularly evident across the core monsoon belt, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, parts of Maharashtra, Odisha and the Indo-Gangetic plains, where rainfall remained below normal for most of the month.
Despite the sluggish start, meteorologists said conditions remain favourable for the southwest monsoon to progress further over the coming days. The weather system is expected to cover the remaining parts of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Delhi, Chandigarh, Daman and Diu, Jammu and Kashmir, and sections of Rajasthan within the next two to three days.
IMD Director General M. Mohapatra said that several regions are still expected to receive good rainfall during July. These include east-central India covering parts of Vidarbha, Marathwada, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Odisha, along with northeastern states such as Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Manipur and Mizoram. Parts of Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh are also likely to witness active rainfall.
The department noted that the long-period average rainfall for July stands at approximately 280.4 mm. However, prevailing weak El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to influence the monsoon, potentially resulting in rainfall that remains slightly below the seasonal average.
Alongside the rainfall outlook, the IMD has forecast above-normal daytime temperatures across most parts of the country during July. Maximum temperatures are expected to remain higher than usual in many regions, although isolated pockets of west-central India may experience normal or below-normal daytime temperatures. Night temperatures are also predicted to remain above average across much of the country, except in select areas of central and northeastern India.
Weather experts emphasised that a deficient June does not necessarily indicate a weak monsoon season overall. Historical data shows that since 1951, India has experienced 26 years with below-normal June rainfall. Of these, only eight years eventually ended with below-normal seasonal monsoon rainfall, while the majority went on to record either normal or above-normal rainfall during the rest of the season.
The IMD said it will continue monitoring evolving weather patterns as the monsoon advances across northern and northwestern India in the coming days.
