New Delhi: The intensifying trade war between the United States and China may unsettle global markets, but experts believe it could create fresh opportunities for Indian exporters. The sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese goods is expected to redirect American demand toward Indian products, offering a major boost to the country’s export sector.
The US recently announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, 2025, raising total duties to a steep 130%. The move follows Beijing’s October 9 decision to impose restrictions on rare earth exports — critical raw materials for US defense, electric vehicle, and clean-energy industries.
According to S.C. Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), India’s exports to the US — worth $86 billion in 2024–25 — are likely to rise in the wake of the new tariffs. “We may gain from this escalation,” Ralhan told PTI, noting that higher US duties on Chinese goods would make Indian products more competitive.
Several exporters echoed this sentiment. A leading textile exporter said that with US tariffs on Indian goods currently at 50%, “the additional 100% tariff on Chinese products will give us an edge.” Toy exporter Manu Gupta added that higher duties would “create parity and offer a level playing field,” revealing that major US retailers, including Target, have already approached Indian suppliers for new product lines.
Trade analysts at the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) warned that while India stands to benefit, the trade conflict will likely push up global prices for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductor components. The US currently depends heavily on China for electronics, textiles, footwear, white goods, and solar panels.
The US remained India’s largest trading partner for the fourth consecutive year in 2024–25, with bilateral trade reaching $131.84 billion, including $86.5 billion in exports. The country accounts for 18% of India’s total exports, 6.22% of imports, and 10.73% of total merchandise trade. Both nations are currently negotiating a bilateral trade agreement aimed at further deepening economic cooperation.
However, the ripple effects of the trade war are expected to impact other major economies as well. Mexico and Canada — key US trade partners — may face disruptions, while Asian economies such as South Korea, Japan, and Singapore could experience slower growth due to supply chain shifts in electronics and manufacturing sectors.
