New Delhi— India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, warning that several rain-fed agricultural regions may face deficient rainfall.
The weather office has also forecast above-normal heatwave days during June across many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, along with isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Rajasthan and Jharkhand, however, are expected to witness below-normal heatwave activity.
According to the IMD, climate models indicate the likely development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season. El Niño is generally associated with weaker monsoon activity, below-normal rainfall and a higher probability of drought conditions in India.
The IMD said the current El Niño conditions remain weak but are expected to intensify over the coming months.
“During June to September 2026, below-normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas over northwest and northeast India, eastern parts of the south peninsula, adjoining areas of east-central India, and isolated pockets of east India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely,” the IMD stated.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), which includes most of India’s rain-fed agricultural regions, is likely to receive below-normal rainfall this season.
For June 2026 specifically, the IMD forecast below-normal rainfall across most regions of the country. However, parts of northwest India, northeast India, the southern peninsula and isolated areas of central India may receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
The southwest monsoon had entered parts of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16. By May 28, it had further advanced into parts of the south Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep area, south Bay of Bengal and east-central Bay of Bengal, covering the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea.
The weather department also projected above-normal maximum temperatures across most parts of the country, except sections of central, northwest and east India where temperatures may remain normal to below normal. Minimum temperatures are also expected to stay above normal over most regions.
The IMD warned that deficient monsoon rainfall could negatively affect agriculture, water availability, hydropower generation and ecological sustainability. It also cautioned about rising risks of drought, heat stress and increased pressure on drinking water resources.
To reduce the impact, the IMD advised efficient water resource management, adoption of water conservation measures, contingency planning for agriculture, stronger drought monitoring systems and wider use of early warning services.
India received 121.7 mm rainfall between March 1 and May 27 this year, according to IMD data.
