Tehran: The passing of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, has brought renewed focus to the intricate and largely opaque process that determines who will guide the Islamic Republic next. While the constitution outlines a framework for succession, political realities and clerical negotiations often make the transition anything but straightforward.
The Role of the Assembly of Experts
Responsibility for appointing — and theoretically dismissing — a supreme leader lies with the Assembly of Experts. This 88-member body, composed entirely of Shiite clerics, is elected by the public every eight years. However, candidates must first be cleared by the Guardian Council, an oversight institution known for vetting and disqualifying hopefuls across Iran’s political spectrum.
The Assembly is constitutionally required to move swiftly in naming a successor. Although it has the authority to remove a supreme leader, that power has never been exercised.
Interim Leadership If Needed
If a delay occurs in selecting a new leader, the constitution provides for a temporary leadership arrangement. In such a case, a council comprising the sitting president, the judiciary chief, and a cleric selected by the Expediency Council would assume the supreme leader’s responsibilities.
Under current circumstances, that could include President Masoud Pezeshkian and judiciary head Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei. This interim body would oversee state affairs until the Assembly finalizes its decision.
Potential Successors and Political Calculations
Speculation over who might emerge as the next supreme leader has intensified. In recent years, the late President Ebrahim Raisi had been widely viewed as a likely contender, but his death in a helicopter crash in 2024 altered the landscape.
Attention has since turned to Mojtaba Khamenei, a cleric and son of the late leader. Though he has not held formal government office, some analysts believe he could be considered. A hereditary-style transition, however, may stir criticism both domestically and among conservative supporters of the Islamic Republic, who could see such a move as echoing monarchical traditions overthrown in 1979.
A Rare Moment in Modern Iranian History
Iran has experienced only one previous leadership transition at this level. In 1989, Ruhollah Khomeini, the architect of the Islamic Revolution, died after leading the country for a decade that included a protracted war with Iraq. Khamenei was subsequently chosen to succeed him.
This new transition unfolds against a tense regional backdrop, following heightened military confrontations and mounting economic pressures.
The Scope of the Supreme Leader’s Authority
The office of supreme leader sits at the core of Iran’s political structure. Beyond shaping domestic and foreign policy, the leader serves as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and oversees the influential Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a force deeply embedded in the nation’s security and economic sectors.
Given the concentration of authority in the position, the choice of successor will have profound implications — not only for Iran’s governance but also for its regional posture and international relationships.
As deliberations begin behind closed doors, the world watches closely to see who will assume one of the most powerful roles in the Middle East.
