New Delhi: Escalating trade threats from US President Donald Trump are pushing Canada towards a major recalibration of its foreign policy, with Ottawa now aggressively pivoting towards India as a key strategic and economic partner. The shift signals a clear attempt by Canada to reduce its dependence on the United States and safeguard its sovereignty amid growing protectionism in North America.
The diplomatic thaw comes after a prolonged chill in India-Canada relations during the latter years of former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s tenure. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, Ottawa is now pursuing an ambitious trade diversification strategy, viewing India as central to its long-term economic and geopolitical recalibration.
Prime Minister Carney is expected to visit India soon, with the trip likely to take place in early March after New Delhi presents its Union Budget on February 1, according to media reports. The visit is expected to focus on expanding bilateral trade and concluding agreements in key sectors such as uranium, energy, critical minerals and artificial intelligence, officials familiar with the matter said.
Indian High Commissioner to Canada Dinesh Patnaik indicated that the visit would mark a decisive effort to rebuild ties after more than two years of strained relations. The outreach comes at a time when both India and Canada are facing steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, creating shared economic pressures that have brought the two countries closer.
The renewed engagement follows what has been described as a “fruitful conversation” between Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand on the occasion of India’s 77th Republic Day. The discussions reportedly focused on expanding cooperation in artificial intelligence, strengthening economic partnerships and sustaining high-level diplomatic exchanges.
Canadian officials have made it clear that the pivot towards India is part of a broader strategy to reduce reliance on the US market. Anand recently stated that Canada aims to double its non-US exports over the next decade, underlining that the country cannot afford to put “all its eggs in one basket” amid increasing uncertainty in Washington.
The urgency behind Ottawa’s outreach is rooted in Trump’s aggressive trade posture. The US president has threatened to impose a 100 per cent tariff on Canadian goods if Canada becomes a transit hub for Chinese exports into the American market. These warnings were triggered in part by a Canadian decision to allow the entry of tens of thousands of Chinese electric vehicles annually under a trade arrangement with Beijing.
Despite the deep economic integration between Canada and the US, with bilateral trade running into hundreds of billions of dollars annually, Washington has increasingly viewed Canada’s engagement with China as a strategic vulnerability. Analysts note that this has intensified Ottawa’s need to diversify trade partnerships beyond North America.
India and Canada now find themselves in a similar position under Trump’s tariff regime. India is facing tariffs as high as 50 per cent, partly linked to its purchase of Russian oil, while Canada is confronting duties of around 35 per cent despite decades of close economic ties with the US. This convergence has accelerated discussions on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, with a long-term target of boosting bilateral trade to $50 billion by 2030.
Beyond economics, concerns in Ottawa extend to national security and political sovereignty. Trump’s repeated references to Canada as a potential “51st state” have sparked unease, with reports suggesting that Canadian defence planners have even examined hypothetical scenarios involving American coercion. While experts dismiss the likelihood of military action, they warn that economic pressure and strategic demands on resources such as water, energy and critical minerals pose real risks.
India’s growing economic weight and strategic position in the Indo-Pacific have made it an attractive partner for Canada. Ottawa views New Delhi as a stable democratic ally and a counterbalance to both US dominance and Chinese influence. Strengthening defence and security cooperation with India is also seen as a way to reinforce Canada’s strategic autonomy.
Recent steps indicate a willingness on both sides to move past earlier tensions, including the return of envoys and an agreement to expand diplomatic staffing after strains linked to the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in Canada in 2023. India has denied any involvement in the incident.
Canada’s Energy Minister Tim Hodgson is also expected to visit India shortly, including a stop in Goa, to explore cooperation in areas such as liquefied natural gas, uranium and critical minerals, sectors where Canada holds significant reserves.
While Canadian leaders have stressed that ties with the US remain vital, the current pivot underscores a clear message from Ottawa: economic resilience and strategic independence now demand a broader global engagement. For India, Canada’s renewed interest offers an opportunity to secure energy resources and deepen its footprint in North America at a time when global trade dynamics are rapidly shifting.
