New Delhi— The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced on Thursday that there is a 55 per cent chance of a weak La Niña shaping global weather patterns over the next three months. Despite La Niña’s typical cooling influence on global temperatures, many regions are still expected to experience warmer-than-usual conditions, the agency said in its latest climate update.
La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle in the Pacific Ocean. La Niña refers to significant cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, accompanied by shifts in tropical winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall. El Niño, the warm phase, often weakens India’s monsoon and raises the risk of drought.
According to seasonal forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres, oceanic and atmospheric indicators in mid-November 2025 point to borderline La Niña conditions. The probability of fully crossing the La Niña threshold between December and February 2025–26 stands at 55 per cent.
Earlier this week, the India Meteorological Department forecast normal to below-normal winter temperatures across central India, as well as parts of northwest and peninsular India, due to weak La Niña conditions.
WMO added that chances of a return to ENSO-neutral conditions increase to about 65 per cent for January–March 2026 and 75 per cent for February–April 2026, while the likelihood of El Niño remains low. The agency also noted that ENSO is a major, but not the only, driver of global climate patterns, with other factors such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole influencing seasonal climate outcomes.
