New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance into Kerala within the next two to three days, marking the beginning of the country’s crucial rainy season.
The monsoon normally arrives over Kerala around June 1 each year. While the IMD had earlier forecast its onset by May 26, the expected arrival was delayed. On May 29, the weather department revised its forecast and indicated that the monsoon would likely reach the state during the following week.
According to the latest IMD update, weather conditions are now favourable for the monsoon to progress into additional parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala and Tamil Nadu over the next few days.
The department also expects the monsoon to advance further into parts of the southwest, west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal, along with the remaining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal during the same period.
Meanwhile, the IMD has revised its seasonal outlook and projected below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season. India is expected to receive around 90 per cent of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this year.
The Long Period Average refers to the average rainfall recorded over a region over a period of 30 to 50 years. For India, the seasonal LPA based on data from 1971 to 2020 stands at 87 centimetres. Any monsoon season receiving less than 90 per cent of the LPA is categorised as deficient by the IMD.
Meteorologists have attributed the weaker rainfall outlook partly to the possible development of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The IMD said neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are gradually shifting towards El Niño, which is generally associated with reduced monsoon rainfall over India.
The department added that El Niño conditions are likely to remain weak during June but could strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September.
