The year 2025 has already left a deep scar on the collective memory of many Indians, particularly the families of 26 victims of the Pahalgam attack, one of the deadliest terror incidents in recent years. On April 22, armed militants disguised in Indian Army uniforms stormed Baisaran Valley, opening fire on civilians, many of whom were honeymooners. All 26 victims were men, and the brutality of the attack sent shockwaves across the country.
In response, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, targeting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and across the border in Pakistan. New Delhi maintained that the strikes were aimed solely at terror camps, avoiding confrontation with Pakistani military assets. However, Islamabad retaliated with its offensive, which India’s air defence systems largely repelled. The Indian armed forces went on to damage major Pakistani air bases and eliminate high-value militant targets.
Escalating Rhetoric and Military Maneuvers
Speculation about a potential war reignited after Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, issued a stark warning from Tampa, Florida, threatening “nuclear consequences” if Pakistan faced an existential crisis in a future conflict with India. The statement was especially notable given its delivery on U.S. soil, under the watch of President Donald Trump, a leader once touted as a close ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Meanwhile, Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi cautioned that the country’s “next war could be closer than we think,” urging a “whole-of-nation” approach to defence that would involve civilians alongside the military.
Adding to the charged atmosphere, both India and Pakistan’s navies are preparing for parallel exercises in the Arabian Sea. While each nation has issued separate Notices to Airmen (NOTAM) marking their drill zones, details about participating warships remain classified.
Diplomatic Strains and Shifting Alliances
The once-celebrated Modi–Trump friendship also appears to be fraying. While Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for brokering the earlier ceasefire between the two countries, Modi has publicly asserted that the ceasefire was initiated by Pakistan. Relations soured further when Trump slapped steep tariffs, first 25%, followed by an additional 25% — on Indian goods, coupled with a string of unfavourable remarks about India’s trade policies.
Modi, for his part, has doubled down on protecting Indian farmers, signalling that agricultural interests will not be compromised, even at the cost of larger trade deals.
A Critical Question Looms
With inflammatory statements from military leaders, simultaneous naval drills, and souring US–India ties, the question resonates more strongly than ever: Are India and Pakistan heading toward another war?
While no official declaration of intent has been made by either side, the convergence of military readiness, political tensions, and diplomatic rifts suggests that the coming months could prove decisive in shaping South Asia’s security landscape.
