Chandigarh: The southwest monsoon is likely to reach parts of northwest India earlier than usual this year, with the India Meteorological Department indicating its arrival around June 20 — several days ahead of the normal schedule for the region.
According to the latest weather projections, the monsoon is expected to touch the eastern edges of Himachal Pradesh and parts of northeastern Uttarakhand by June 20. If the system progresses as anticipated, it could spread across most areas of both states by June 25 before advancing into eastern Punjab and Haryana around the end of June.
The forecast suggests that the entire northwestern belt, including remaining parts of Punjab and Haryana, could witness full monsoon coverage by July 5, while western Rajasthan is expected to come under its influence by July 8.
Historically, such an early advance into the region has been relatively uncommon. Since 2000, the monsoon has reached northwest India before June 20 only a handful of times, with the earliest onset recorded on June 6 in the year 2000.
Weather experts noted that this year’s progress is broadly comparable to 2025, when the monsoon entered Punjab on June 22 and covered the state within days. Haryana saw a similar pattern, while Himachal Pradesh had received full monsoon coverage by June 24.
The seasonal system has already made progress over southern sections of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, while also touching southern Sri Lanka. It is now expected to arrive over Kerala by May 26, earlier than its traditional onset date of June 1.
Despite the promising early movement, the IMD has projected overall rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season to remain slightly below normal at around 92 percent of the long-period average, with a margin for variation. However, meteorologists believe weather conditions over the Indian Ocean later in the season could strengthen rainfall activity and offset some adverse effects linked to El Niño.
The importance of the monsoon remains critical for India’s economy, particularly for agriculture, water storage and power generation. More than half of the country’s cultivated land still depends directly on seasonal rainfall, making timely and adequate showers essential for crop health and rural livelihoods.
Meanwhile, reservoir storage across major northern dams currently remains comfortable. Official data show water levels in key reservoirs of Himachal Pradesh and Punjab are well above normal for this period, providing some reassurance even if rainfall fluctuates during the season.
With the early signs appearing favourable, farmers and policymakers alike will now closely monitor the monsoon’s pace in the coming weeks, as its performance will significantly shape agricultural output and economic activity across the region.
