New Delhi— India is preparing to significantly reduce its direct imports of Russian crude oil starting late November, in response to new US sanctions targeting Moscow’s top oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, which will come into effect on November 21.
Indian refiners, which currently handle over half of the country’s total Russian crude imports, are expected to comply with the sanctions, analysts said. The restrictions will impact how Russian oil is traded globally, with Indian companies already adjusting their procurement strategies to avoid exposure to potential penalties.
According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, Russian crude arrivals in India are expected to fall sharply in December. The decline may gradually ease in early 2026 as refiners turn to intermediaries and alternative trading routes to maintain supply.
Reliance Industries Ltd, India’s largest importer of Russian oil and a long-term partner of Rosneft, has decided to halt its Russian crude purchases. Two other major refiners — Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL) and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL), a joint venture between Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd and steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal’s energy firm — have also announced plans to suspend imports.
These three companies together accounted for more than half of the 1.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude imported during the first half of 2025. However, Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery, which is partly owned by Rosneft and already under European Union sanctions, is expected to continue taking in Russian supplies.
Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst (refining & modelling) at Kpler, said Russia remained India’s top crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Before the sanctions, Russian shipments to India averaged between 1.6 and 1.8 million barrels per day, but a decline has been visible since late October as refiners moved cautiously to avoid any conflict with the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
While analysts do not expect Russian crude to disappear entirely from India’s energy basket, they predict future transactions will become more complex, relying on intermediaries and blended trading routes. Indian refiners are already diversifying, increasing crude imports from the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the US.
US crude shipments to India reached 568,000 barrels per day in October — the highest since March 2021 — largely due to favorable pricing and trade opportunities rather than sanctions alone. These flows are expected to normalize between 250,000 and 350,000 barrels per day in December and January.
“We expect visible reductions in Russian crude arrivals after November 21,” Ritolia said. “Most Indian refiners will comply with the US sanctions and either halt or significantly scale down direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil.”
