Washington: As the United States signals a possible early exit from its military campaign against Iran, geopolitical experts are cautioning that the outcome may not weaken Tehran as intended—but instead leave it more assertive and strategically advantaged in the region.
Recent remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump suggesting a swift end to hostilities—potentially even without a formal agreement—have sparked concern among analysts and Gulf nations alike. The fear is that an incomplete resolution could allow Iran to retain, or even expand, its influence over critical energy corridors, particularly the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy Leverage and Regional Anxiety
Iran’s demonstrated ability to disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait has already sent shockwaves across global energy markets. Experts warn that if the conflict ends without firm guarantees, Tehran could continue to exert pressure on oil and gas flows—placing Gulf economies in a vulnerable position.
According to regional observers, the imbalance lies in Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare. Rather than seeking outright military victory, Tehran has focused on targeting economic pressure points—especially energy infrastructure and shipping lanes—forcing its adversaries to bear rising costs.
A Conflict That Reinforced Resistance
What was initially seen as a campaign to destabilize Iran’s leadership may have had the opposite effect. The killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei early in the conflict was expected to fracture the system. Instead, his succession by Mojtaba Khamenei appears to have consolidated internal unity, strengthening hardline elements within the country.
Analysts argue that the attack transformed a geopolitical struggle into a deeper ideological confrontation, reinforcing narratives of resistance within Iran’s political and religious establishment.
Misreading Iran’s Resilience
Experts say U.S. and allied forces may have underestimated Iran’s institutional depth and ability to withstand pressure. Despite targeted strikes on military infrastructure and leadership, the system has shown an ability to adapt and regenerate through parallel power structures.
This resilience, combined with Iran’s long-standing investment in unconventional tactics, has allowed it to sustain pressure without engaging in direct, large-scale confrontation.
Gulf Nations Caught in the Middle
For Gulf countries, the stakes are particularly high. Many in the region fear being left to deal with the aftermath of a conflict they neither initiated nor controlled. With U.S. forces still present in the region, the possibility of continued Iranian retaliation remains a key concern.
The broader risk, analysts say, is that unresolved tensions could spill beyond the immediate conflict zone, potentially affecting global trade routes and security dynamics.
Uncertain Endgame
While Washington has indicated that discussions with Tehran are ongoing, there is little clarity on what a post-conflict arrangement might look like. Without a comprehensive settlement, experts warn that the war could conclude without delivering lasting stability—leaving Iran emboldened and the region more fragile than before.
In such a scenario, the balance of power in West Asia may shift in unexpected ways, with long-term consequences for global energy security and geopolitical alignment.
