NEW DELHI — Amid projections of below-normal monsoon rainfall in India this year, the rapid activation of the El Niño climate phenomenon has raised serious concerns among meteorologists. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this disruptive weather pattern is poised to arrive early between May and July. Data reveals that the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature is currently 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, a troubling threshold that could persist throughout the entire upcoming monsoon season. The probability of its development has escalated sharply from a 61 per cent estimate last month to an alarming 82 per cent, signaling a difficult period ahead for agrarian economies.
Addressing the potential fallout, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra emphasized that the phenomenon will directly undercut seasonal precipitation, substantially increasing the risk of severe drought conditions across the country. El Niño functions by causing an abnormal warming of ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific, which fundamentally alters global wind patterns and disrupts traditional rainfall cycles. In simple terms, an active El Niño weakens and stalls the moisture-laden monsoonal winds migrating toward the Indian subcontinent. This global imbalance results in extreme climate variance, triggering intense droughts in some parts of the world while causing torrential deluges and flash floods in others.
The long-term projections from NOAA indicate that the pattern has a staggering 96 per cent probability of persisting through the winter months from December 2026 to February 2027. Furthermore, there is a 67 per cent chance that this event will be classified as strong or very strong, compounding fears of prolonged heatwaves and weak rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. While this triggers heavy precipitation and cyclonic activity in the central Pacific, it strips moisture from ecosystems in Indonesia and northern Australia, dramatically escalating the threat of severe forest fires.
Within the Indian subcontinent, the agricultural belts of north, west, and central India face the highest exposure to drought-like conditions and prolonged dry spells. The states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan are projected to be the most vulnerable zones, particularly during the critical months of August and September. Even regions that typically enjoy robust rainfall in central and western India are bracing for a deficit. In Madhya Pradesh, multiple administrative divisions—including Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar, and Narmadapuram—are expected to record below-normal rainfall. Conversely, regions like Ladakh, Telangana, and select pockets of Rajasthan and northern India are anticipated to experience a milder impact.
This regional crisis mirrors a broader global paradox highlighted in a recent study published in the journal Nature. The research notes that while overall global precipitation is technically increasing, land surfaces and vital ecosystems are paradoxically becoming drier. Scientists found that rainfall is no longer distributed evenly throughout the year; instead, it is increasingly concentrated in short, hyper-intense storm cycles separated by extended dry periods. Because the parched soil cannot absorb such a sudden, overwhelming volume of water all at once, the rainfall accumulates on the surface and quickly turns into vapour, leaving the ecosystem severely moisture-depleted despite the heavy downpours.
